Plan "B"

Sometimes, the hardest thing in the world is also something as simple as getting out of bed on a dismal Monday morning. I had a pretty full weekend and was a little tired when I left my nephew's (and the most beautiful and charming Goddaughter in the world) last night. I got home, did some grocery shopping, but ended up being too pooped to cook dinner. I dozed off to sleep with the timer on the t.v. on.

About 4 in the morning, I woke up (as I sometimes do now). I can't immediately go back to sleep, so I sometimes sit up and watch a little t.v. or pray or walk around the house. I opted for all three this morning.

5 am rolled around and there was no sand in my eyes - sigh. Then, "buzzzzzzzzzz" my pager went off. The database had died overnight. So, I pulled out my laptop and dialed into work (sometimes, it's nice having a phone line in the house). Yep, it died alright and was still dead, but I couldn't find the root cause using a 24.4K modem connection. I opted to fold everything up and get an early start on the day.

I was going to try to get in before my 8 am teleconference, but lo - the alarm went off, and I couldn't move. I was exhausted. "Snooze"....."Buzz!", started the endless loop of barely animated motions to hit the largest button on the clock radio on top of the boxes I still use for a nightstand. "Buzz - Snooze.....Buzz - Snooze". This went on for a good 1/2 hour.

O.K., now I'm late. I barely have enough time to shower/shave/shinola and get to work on time for the call. I scoot up to work, and badge in to the various gates and doors that lead to my office. I threw all my stuff down on the desk. "8:01, rats."

I turned on my laptop to get the 1-800 number for the call. "C'mon. C'mon. C'MON!!!" Why does Bill Gates write such slow operating systems?! My fingers hit the keys on the phone. "[ring] [ring] [ri.. This call has reached capacity..."

Well, I guess I'm sort of off the hook. I guess I'll blog a bit through my 1/2 opened eyes. Looks like somebody's going to have a case of the Mondays.

I've been thinking about ways to improve upon the marine fans that I have in my office, keeping it cooler since the facilities people can't make all rooms on this side of the building an even temperature all day. So, I have this 4' x 2' solar panel taking up a whole bunch of real estate in my office window. I hooked up a voltage regulator, some wires and a good sized capaciter to run these twin marine fans.

A few minutes ago, I took a break to get some ice from the cafeteria, but I also wanted to see if any candy would work my mojo, so I opted for the cyber cafe where the candy machines are. Actually, we don't call it the cyber cafe, but with all the 'bots standing around waiting to dispense candy, I call it that.

I noticed that the ice machine there delivers nearly perfect sheets of ice if you don't break them up into cubes to fit in your cup. I wondered how I might best be able to leverage this new knowledge for keeping my office cool.

"Heck! Why stop there", I thought. I've got liquid nitrogen across the hall! It was at that point that I stopped myself short. I'd better not even consider using N2 for anything extra-curicular like this. Then again... muh ha ha!

I could just see the headlines now as it somehow makes a sprinkler effect with the fans and freezes my whole office solid.

I think I'll stick with my original plan of trying to find a 12v compressor for pumping some radiator fluid through a copper pipe. This mythical compressor has eluded me for years though. I may have to build my own.

So, after I've deleted all the files from my HTML directory, I have no home page. So, here's an open invitation to explore your creative juices. I need a homepage. I guess it should follow along the lines of the domain (ColinoProperties), but it could likely be anything. No guarantees on if I'll use it or not. I'm just curious about who (other than Josh ;-)) is likely to repond. I'm pretty sure Josh'll come up with something.

One thing I think I'd like is a page showing Luxury Condos for rent in exotic places starting at the low $10K per week, but I'd be o.k. with one of those million pixel pages too.

On a personal note, I think I'm almost out of the doghouse at work with the snafu we all decided to take the risk on way back in April - October.

In addition to the other things I want to do this year, I'm also adding "become financially literate" to my list. I'll be the first to tell you that I have no idea of what people in the financial world are talking about when they start talking all fancy like they do. I mean, I couldn't tell you what earnings per share were if I had the earnings and the number of shares in my hand.

So, I decide to go to one of the million or so financial tutorials online to understand what I should be looking at. My instincts and cursory involvement in my own finances indicated that I should be paying attention to Income statements and Balance sheets and some important ratios contained (err, hidden) in them.

I came across this little morsel of knowledge... "The gross margin is not an exact estimate of the company's pricing strategy...". Exact estimate? What exactly is an exact estimate? Does this sentence really read, "The gross margin is a completely random value of the company's pricing strategy"? That's how I'm reading it. Well, two hours and a few examples later, I have something like an outline.

Ratio Analysis - source: http://www.investopedia.com/university/ratios/

Performance 
 Average Interest Rate (balance sheet)
  = (Interest Expense - Accounts Payable) / Liabilities
  This is a rough estimate, the ratio does not account for everything
  Using the before tax or after tax interest expense will produce different results

 Book Value Per Share BV (balance sheet)
  = (Stockholders Equity - Preferred Stock) / Average Outstanding Shares
  ($11,678 - $0) / 3271 = $3.57
  Comparing the market value to the book value can indicate whether or not the stock in overvalued or undervalued
  During bull markets the stock price is more likely to trade significantly higher than book value, 
  and in a bear market the two value's may be close to equal. 

 Cash Flow to Assets (balance sheet, cash flow)
  = Cash from Operations / Total Assets
  $4,438/14,725 = 0.30 
  Comparing to previous years is important, if the company's ratio is decreasing then they may eventually run into cash problems

 Common Size Analysis (balance sheet, cash flow, income statement)
  = Entity / Total Entity
    1999 1998
  Sales   100%  100% 
  COGS   35%  34% <---ex: $2,924/8,488 = .3444 = 34%
  Other Expenses  40%  41% 
  Net Income  17%  16% 

  Compares what proportion that an expense reduces sales, especially useful when comparing previous years
  It is also useful when comparing similar companies of different sizes to see if they have the same financial structure

 Dividend Payout Ratio (income statement)
  = Yearly Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share 
  A reduction in dividends paid is looked poorly upon by investors, and the stock price usually depreciates as investors seek other dividend paying stocks
  A stable dividend payout ratio indicates a solid dividend policy by the company's board of directors

 Earnings Per Share (EPS) (balance sheet, income statement)
  = Net Income - Dividends on Preferred Stock / Average Outstanding Shares 
  Diluted EPS means that the outstanding shares includes any convertible's or warrants outstanding
  If the company issues more shares then EPS are much harder to compare to previous years

 Gross Profit Margin (income statement)
  = Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold / Revenue 
  ($12,154-4,240) / $12,154 = 0.65
  The results may skew if the company has a very large range of products.
  This is very useful when comparing against the margins of previous years. 
  A 33% gross margin means products are marked up 50% and so on. 

 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio or Multiple) (income statement)
  = Market Value per Share / Earnings per Share 
  $107.125 / $0.65 = 164.8
  One of the most widely used ratios, it compares the current price with earnings to see if a stock is over or under valued
  Generally a high P/E ratio means that investors are anticipating higher growth in the future.
  The average market P/E ratio is 20-25 times earnings.
  The P/E ratio can use estimated earnings to get the forward looking P/E ratio.
  Companies that are losing money do not have a P/E ratio. 


 Profit Margin (income statement)
  = Net Income / Revenue 
  $2,096 / $12,154 = 0.17
  This ratio is not useful for companies losing money, since they have no profit.
  A low profit margin can indicate pricing strategy and/or the impact competition has on margins. 

 Return on Assets (ROA or ROI) (balance sheet, income statement)
  = (Net Income + Interest Expense) / Total Assets
  $2,096 / $14,725 = 0.14
  We add the interest expense to ignore the costs associated with funding those assets

 Return on Equity (ROE) (balance sheet, income statement)
  = Net Income / Shareholder's Equity 
  $2,096 / $11,678 = 0.18
  If new shares are issued then use the weighted average of the number of shares throughout the year.
  For high growth companies you should expect a higher ROE.
  Averaging ROE over the past 5-10 years can give you a better idea of the historical growth. 

Activity
 Asset Turnover (balance sheet, income statement)
  = Revenue / Total Assets  
  $12,154 / $14,725 = 0.85
  Companies with low profit margins tend to have high asset turnover, those with high profit margins have low asset turnover 
   - it indicates pricing strategy.
  This ratio is more useful for growth companies to check if in fact they are growing revenue in proportion to sales. 

 Collection Ratio (balance sheet, income statement)
  = Accounts Receivable / (Revenue/365)
  $1,242 / ($12,154/365) = 37.3
  A high ratio indicates that the company is having problems getting paid for services or products.
  The ratio is sometimes seasonally affected, rising during busy seasons and falling during the off-season. 
  To account for this seasonality, the average accounts receivable 
   ((beginning + ending accounts receivable)/2) could be used instead. 

 Inventory Turnover (balance sheet, income statement)
  = Cost of Goods Sold / Average or Current Period Inventory 
  $4,240 / $652 = 6.50
  A low turnover is usually a bad sign because products tend to deteriorate as they sit in a warehouse.
  Companies selling perishable items have very high turnover.
  For more accurate inventory turnover figures, the average inventory figure, 
   ((beginning inventory + ending inventory)/2), 
   is used when computing inventory turnover. 
  Average inventory accounts for any seasonality effects on the ratio. 

Financing
 Debt / Asset Ratio (balance sheet)
  = Total Liabilities  / Total Assets  
  $3,003 / $14,725 = 0.20
  This ratio is very similar to the debt-equity ratio
  A ratio under 1 means a majority of assets are financed through equity
  Above 1 means they are financed more by debt. 
  Furthermore you can interpret a high ratio as a "highly debt leveraged firm". 

 Debt / Equity Ratio (balance sheet)
  = Total Liabilities / Shareholders Equity  
  $3,003 / $11,678 = 0.26 
   A ratio greater than one means assets are mainly financed with debt, less than one means equity provides a majority of the financing.
  If the ratio is high (financed more with debt) then the company is in a risky position - especially if interest rates are on the rise.



Liquidity Warnings

 Acid Test (Quick Ratio) (balance sheet)
  = (Cash + Accounts Receivable + Short-term Investments) / Current Liabilities 
  $827+$1189+$1242 / 3003 = 1.08
  An extreme version of the working capital ratio because it only uses cash and equivalents
  The ratio excludes inventory, which for some companies can make up a large portion of its assets

 Interest Coverage (income statement)
  = EBITDA / Interest Expense
  A ratio under 1 means that the company is having problems generating enough cash flow to pay its interest expenses.
  Ideally you want the ratio to be over 1.5.

 Working Capital (Current Ratio) (balance sheet)
  = Current Assets / Current Liabilities  
  $4,615 / $3003 = 1.54
  If the ratio is less than one then they have negative working capital.
  A high working capital ratio isn't always a good thing, it could indicate that they have too much inventory or they are not investing their excess cash.

These are NOT New Years Resolutions. They ARE things I am resolving to do this year.

Read Matthew, Mark, Luke and John

Get my body fat below 20% (currently around 22.5%)

File for 1 patent

Save money

Replace the windows in my house

Create an emergency preparedness kit

It's starting to look like a TO-DO list. What are your TO-DOs this year? Find yourself? Find God? Go fishing? Go on a cruise? Take up a good hobby? Loose a bad habit?

In general, I don't think that I like New Years resolutions, but it gives you a nice round calendar date for being able to look back to see how you've done at the end of the year. I've tried to make at least some of mine meaningful. I know the window thing is a bit off, but I need to set it as a goal for the year and see to it that it gets done. Living in a HOA doesn't make things like changing windows any easier either.

I hope to have more exotic and tropical TO-DOs on next years list. Here's my dream list for this year...

QM2 from LA to Hawaii on February 25th

Read the Bible

Understand what I've read

Apply it

Pass it on

I'm simply not going to be doing #1. I'll chip away at the others.

# posted by Johnny @ 1/20/2006 05:47:00 PM 2 comments links to this post

Well, I did it now. I wanted to get an RSS feed into my blog, so I went through the necessary steps to get it up and running. Then, I noticed that all the files were going into /html and not html, so I tried to delete the /html directory. You guessed it, the / character was ignored, and everything got canned.

I went back to www.blogger.com and republished my blog from scratch, but everything else under that directory was executed. Bummer too because I lost a whole bunch of neat pictures and video.

Live and learn? Anywho, ta da! My improved blog - now with RSS. For those who care.

Yup, still FAT, but I'm gaining ground. I bought a scale over the weekend that measures body fat and water percentage. After working out for less than a year, I'm managed to lose about 2% of my total fat and gain about 7 pounds of muscle - Charles Atlas watch out. I'm still at around 22.5% fat, which is on the trailing edge of unhealthy still.

If you think dieting to loose weight is hard, try dieting to gain weight - loose fat - gain muscle mass and still squeeze in a day of work. It's a pretty narrow window to work in because if I exercise like I want to loose fat, I also burn muscle mass, but if I spend my time at the gym building muscles, my cardio workout suffers.

In a million years, I never would of thought that I'd be taking care of myself this well. Eating vegetables, drinking less soda, the occassional bottle of water. I even manage to stop biting my nails when I think about it. I somehow always thought that when the smell of my rotting body finally made the police break open my front door, that I'd be found sitting on the couch in front of the t.v. with a pizza box on my lap.

As a side note: In searching for an appropriate picture to captionize, I can't believe the number of people who prop their cats up on couches with remotes in their paws. One is funny, two is a copy, a thousand is diarrhea.

BTW: Are people who diet but don't exercise called couch carrots?

O.K., so I came in this wonderful morning all horse and tired because E and I went out dancing last night. I turn on my email, and there's a notes from Mary Jane who? I opened it up not thinking it would be a virus or anything. Apparently, she meant to send this note to one person, but instead she sent it to about 500 people by accident. O.K., Mary made a mistake - big whoop! Whatever.

The thing that was most annoying are the 500 or so people who feel the need to tell everyone on the cc list that they received the email in error. So now, instead of 500 people getting a single email by mistake, we now have 500 people receiving 500 pieces of email each about the mistake - which are mistakes in themselves.

So, that was my morning. It's 9:45 or so now. I've got my coffee and finished my water bottle. The solar panel on my window is waking up and slowly getting the fans going faster and faster.

Morning is Here! Breakfast is Near!

On another note, I got a call from my bank yesterday. My Eisenhower dollars should be arriving this morning. As strange as it may sound to non-"family" members, everytime I visit my beautiful God daughter and she kisses my pinky ring - she gets a dollar. I WILL be her favorite uncle.

After a gruelling week in the pit of heck, it's finally here - FRIDAY!! w00t. I couldn't wait for it to get here. The Beerings party is tomorrow and I get to see all those 100 or so people that I get to see twice a year. I spend 2% of my life with them, and they're all a pretty big part of me.

Another 50% of my life is spent at work where things are starting to happen. We hit a significant milestone and after today (which was email hell) I'm pretty confident about the quality and performance. That's a lot coming from me. I'm not usually one to feel very confident at work. There have been a lot of unreasonable demands (opinion) and lots of sacrifice, but this release is ready to test and release.

On an unrelated thread, E is coming to town next week. I *FINALLY* think I'm going to get to go dancing. She loves dancing and so do I. We'll play it by ear, but I'm hopeful.

On an unrelated thread, the QM2 leaves for Hawaii from LA on February 25th. 11 days - mostly at sea with pool games and bar trivia. yum.

On an unrelated thread, my Cosmos DVDs finally came in. One set was supposed to be a Christmas present for my Dad, but they got lost in the mail. So, I them resent, and they came in two days ago. I was so excited, that I threw DVD 1 into the PS2 and punched play. It was just as I remembered, especially the part about falling asleep before I get to the end. LOL.

Well, I'm off to save the world with my red cape and mask. Making the Universe safe for mere mortals. Up, up and awayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy...............